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See Which States Are Falling Behind Biden’s Vaccination Goal

Share of U.S. adults who have received at least one vaccine dose

25% 50% 100% of adults 70% by July 4 is the White House goal
Jan. 14 June 2 July 4

63%

68%

At current pace
At least
one dose
Note: The projection is based on a 7-day rolling average of new vaccinations of people 18 or older.

The United States is roughly on track to meet President Biden’s goal of getting at least one Covid-19 shot into the arms of 70 percent of adults by July 4 — if the current vaccination pace holds. But demand for vaccines has decreased in much of the country in recent weeks, and the promising national numbers (about 63 percent of adults have received at least one shot) do not reflect the uneven rates among states.

Even if the country as a whole reaches the national target, at least 30 states probably will not. And a handful are unlikely to reach the 70 percent mark before the end of the year, a New York Times analysis shows, potentially prolonging the pandemic.

“You reach a certain rate nationally, which looks excellent and would really suggest that you are in a place to reduce the likelihood of infectious spread, but that can be misleading,” said Dr. Marcus Plescia, the chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, which represents state health agencies.

“You still have these significant pockets and states where the rates of immunity are much lower,” he added. “So we could have another wave pop up.”

How long it would take each state to reach 70 percent of adults with one dose at the current vaccination pace

State
Currently
vaccinated
7-day avg.
vaccinations
per 100,000
Est. time
to 70% at
current pace
United States U.S.
63%
173
1 month
Alabama Ala.
46%
45
1 year+
Mississippi Miss.
44%
55
1 year+
Wyoming Wyo.
47%
74
10 months
Louisiana La.
46%
109
7 months
Oklahoma Okla.
54%
86
6 months
Tennessee Tenn.
49%
113
6 months
North Dakota N.D.
54%
89
6 months
Missouri Mo.
53%
101
5 months
North Carolina N.C.
54%
101
5 months
Arkansas Ark.
50%
126
5 months
South Carolina S.C.
51%
122
5 months
Idaho Idaho
50%
129
5 months
West Virginia W.Va.
49%
143
4 months
Montana Mont.
56%
111
4 months
Indiana Ind.
53%
148
3 months
Georgia Ga.
51%
189
3 months
South Dakota S.D.
62%
82
3 months
Utah Utah
61%
98
3 months
Kansas Kan.
60%
110
3 months
Alaska Alaska
58%
126
3 months
Ohio Ohio
57%
151
2 months
Arizona Ariz.
58%
142
2 months
Kentucky Ky.
58%
157
2 months
Iowa Iowa
62%
117
2 months
Nevada Nev.
57%
185
2 months
Michigan Mich.
60%
149
2 months
Texas Texas
57%
189
2 months
Nebraska Neb.
62%
136
2 months
Wisconsin Wis.
63%
140
1 month
Florida Fla.
60%
203
1 month
Puerto Rico P.R.
60%
477
22 days
Colorado Colo.
66%
179
21 days
Minnesota Minn.
68%
143
18 days
Oregon Ore.
66%
224
18 days
Delaware Del.
67%
233
14 days
Virginia Va.
67%
193
13 days
Illinois Ill.
68%
220
11 days
District of Columbia D.C.
68%
175
10 days
New York N.Y.
68%
224
9 days
Washington Wash.
69%
234
3 days

In many states in the Deep South and Mountain West, vaccinations have leveled off both because of limited access and shot hesitancy. Fewer than half of all adults have received at least one shot in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Wyoming, and projections show that the rate is unlikely to reach much higher than 50 percent by early July.

In these states, about half of adults or fewer have received at least one dose.

Mississippi

70% goal

44%

46%

At least
one dose
By July 4

Alabama

46%

47%

Louisiana

46%

49%

Wyoming

47%

50%

Tennessee

49%

53%

West Virginia

49%

54%

Arkansas

50%

54%

Idaho

50%

54%

Georgia

51%

57%

South Carolina

51%

55%

Indiana

53%

58%

Missouri

53%

56%

Oklahoma

54%

56%

North Dakota

54%

56%

North Carolina

54%

57%

Other states are closer to Biden’s goal, but will not reach 70 percent by July 4 without speeding up.

Montana

70% goal

56%

59%

At least
one dose
By July 4

Ohio

57%

62%

Texas

57%

63%

Nevada

57%

63%

Arizona

58%

62%

Kentucky

58%

63%

Alaska

58%

62%

Kansas

60%

63%

Michigan

60%

65%

Florida

60%

67%

Utah

61%

64%

Iowa

62%

65%

South Dakota

62%

65%

Nebraska

62%

66%

Wisconsin

63%

67%

Some are near 70 percent, or say they aim to get there soon.

Puerto Rico

70% goal

60%

75%

At least
one dose
By July 4

Oregon

66%

73%

Colorado

66%

72%

Delaware

67%

74%

Virginia

68%

74%

Minnesota

68%

72%

Illinois

68%

75%

New York

68%

75%

District of Columbia

68%

74%

Washington

69%

77%

And these states have reached or surpassed 70 percent of adults.

California

70% goal

70%

At least
one dose

Maryland

70%

New Hampshire

71%

Pennsylvania

71%

New Mexico

71%

Rhode Island

72%

New Jersey

74%

Maine

75%

Connecticut

76%

Massachusetts

79%

Hawaii

81%

Vermont

82%

Note: The C.D.C. is working with New Hampshire to correct data transmission errors from recent weeks.

Public health experts and officials in states with lower vaccination rates say the president’s benchmark will help reduce cases and deaths but is somewhat arbitrary — even if 70 percent of adults are vaccinated, the virus and its more contagious variants can spread among those who are not.

But they are still concerned that their residents are more susceptible to infection as restrictions ease across the country, the sense of urgency to get vaccinated declines and many Americans in warmer climates avoid the heat by heading indoors, where the virus spreads more efficiently.

“We’ve got a significant percentage of Louisiana that has initiated, but it’s not herd immunity,” Dr. Joseph Kanter, the top health official in Louisiana, said in mid-May, referring to the share of the total population that needs to acquire resistance to the virus to slow transmission. “It’s nowhere close to it.”

“It’s not insignificant, but it’s not herd immunity,” he added. “So we’re very cognizant of that, and we feel great urgency with the vaccine campaign.”

Even statewide figures that appear promising can gloss over local problem areas, Dr. Kanter said. In Louisiana, less than 20 percent of people in some parishes have received a first dose.

State vaccination rates during previous U.S. vaccination campaigns show some similar patterns.

For example, much of the South had lower vaccination rates than the rest of the country during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 and 2010, and in the flu season just before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Share of adult population vaccinated in each campaign

2009-10 H1N1 vaccine

Lowest
(8%)
Highest
(35%)
AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY

2019-20 flu vaccine

Lowest
(40%)
Highest
(58%)
AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY

2020-21 Covid-19 vaccine

Lowest
(44%)
Highest
(82%)
AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY
Note: Covid vaccination data is through June 2 and represents those with at least one dose.

Public health experts point to persistent challenges in this region of the country, including lower than average access to health care, especially in rural areas, and higher rates of vaccine hesitancy. Politics may also play a role.

“You’re also looking at states that relaxed mandates faster,” said Dr. Jodie L. Guest, an epidemiologist at Emory University. “Leadership matters. If you set the tone that this isn’t serious, it’s hard to convince people that it is.”

Officials in lagging states have said they are hopeful that they can continue to vaccinate more people, but caution that it may take months to work with doctors, employers and community leaders to make inoculations more convenient and to persuade those who are unwilling to get a shot.

To bolster the nation’s progress, the White House has announced an incentive to give parents and caregivers free child care while they get vaccinated.

“I think the question is whether we’re getting to a place where we’ve just leveled out, and we’re just not going to get that many more people,” Dr. Plescia said, “or whether in a lot of these states it will take longer for people to get vaccinated, and we will continue to make progress, but it will be slow progress.”

“I just don’t know how that will play out,” he added.